Dark nights aheadWhy India faces increased risk of blackouts this summer

By India Today Business DeskGrowing solar power usage has helped fuel India’s surging power demand, but the country could see increased nighttime blackouts this summer and in coming years.

Existing coal-fired and hydropower plants in the country may not be enough to support growing power demand in summer, especially during the nights when solar energy is unavailable.

While the growing use of solar farms has helped the country tackle surging power demand during the day, the shortage of traditional power sources could expose millions in the country to widespread outages at night, according to a Reuters report.

Also Read | Delhi’s peak power demand likely to reach 8,000 MW by June-end

Stressed situation

An internal note by the central grid regulator indicates that India’s power availability in “non-solar hours” in April is expected to be 1.7 per cent lower than peak demand.

This essentially means the nighttime peak electricity demand during April is expected to hit 217 gigawatts (GW), which is 6.4 per cent more than the highest nighttime levels recorded in the same month last year.

The Grid Controller of India (Grid-India) said in a note dated February 3 that the “situation is a little stressed”.

Summer heatwaves may worsen situation

The country has already witnessed record temperatures in February, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that months during the summers are likely to be hotter. The weather department has already predicted heat waves between March and May.

Also Read | Why is India baking in February? Is it a sign of early summer?

Rising temperatures will lead to a sharp rise in power demand, especially during the nighttime when most people at home will have maximum dependency on fans, air coolers and air conditioners.

This will further increase the risks of nighttime power outages, given the fact that generational capacities will have to support increased power demand from citizens and also industries that operate around the clock and need uninterrupted power supply.

Steps required to meet power demand

The government is believed to be actively taking steps to avoid power outages in the upcoming summer months. Ministry of Power Secretary Alok Kumar told Reuters that the government is “making capacity available to all states at competitive rates”.

It may be noted that after the Grid-India report, the government has started maintenance at some coal-fired power plants and secured extra gas-fired capacity in order to avert any power crisis. This was confirmed by a senior government official to the news agency.

Grid-India’s note indicated that as much as 189.2 GW of coal-fired capacity is expected to be available in April, up more than 11 per cent from last year. However, coal, nuclear and gas capacity are expected to meet only about 83 per cent of peak demand at night.

Hydropower can prove crucial in meeting much of the remaining supply as it is more flexible in comparison to coal-fired plants, where power generation cannot be increased and decreased quickly to address demand variability.

But Grid-India has forecast peak hydropower availability in April to be 18 per cent below the level a year earlier when output was boosted by favourable weather conditions.

Hetal Gandhi, Director- Research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics told news agency Reuters that imported coal-based power plants would be required to crank up output to up to 55 per cent of the total potential from 21 per cent in February, while domestic coal-fired units will have to increase output to 75 per cent of potential from 69 per cent in February.

“The burden of increased supply will definitely be borne by coal and gas,” Gandhi said, but indicated that it would be tough.

Higher possibility of nighttime outages

The possibility of power outages at nighttime is greater because supply in daylight hours has been supported by nearly four-fold growth in solar capability over the past five years.

As of April 2022, solar boosted renewable energy’s contribution to as much as 18 per cent of India’s generation in the middle of the day. However, the burden increased after sundown, as coal-fired capability has grown only 9 per cent over the past five years.